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Better-Than-Expected Jobs Data Hands Trump Political Victory

The U.S. economy created 119,000 jobs in September, according to a Labor Department report issued Thursday. The release of the report was delayed by the approximately 40-day government shutdown that closed federal agencies. The number of jobs surpassed Wall Street expectations, according to CNBC.

The department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, which provided the report, said it will not issue an October report because of the shutdown. The jobless rate was 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August, according to the report.

The September report included revisions for job gains in the previous two months. Specifically, job creation in July was revised down by 7,000, changing from a gain of 79,000 to 72,000. Additionally, August job creation was revised down by 26,000, shifting from a gain of 22,000 to a loss of 4,000.

Overall, employment figures for July and August combined were 33,000 lower than previously reported.

In September, government payrolls increased by 22,000 jobs after experiencing a decline of the same amount in August. State governments added 16,000 jobs, and local governments contributed 9,000 jobs, while the federal government lost 3,000 jobs during this period.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, federal employment has decreased by 97,000 jobs since reaching its peak in January. The agency also stated that federal workers who are on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in its establishment survey.

In September, the manufacturing sector experienced a reduction of 6,000 positions, which was a less significant decrease compared to the estimated 8,000 job loss by LSEG economists. Overall, there has been a decline of 94,000 jobs in this sector on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous year.

Healthcare businesses saw an increase of 42,800 jobs in September, slightly surpassing their 12-month average of 42,000 positions, primarily due to increases within ambulatory healthcare services (+23,300) and hospitals (+16,400).

The food services and drinking places sector added 36,500 jobs during September, while the social assistance industry saw a growth of 14,300 positions for the month.

Transportation and warehousing recorded a reduction of 25,300 jobs in September, influenced by declines in warehousing and storage (-10,700) as well as couriers and messengers (-6,700).

The labor force participation rate stood at 62.4% in September, showing minimal change both over the previous month and the past year. The employment-population ratio similarly remained mostly unchanged in September at 59.7%, although it has decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to last year.

The count of long-term unemployed individuals, defined as those out of work for 27 weeks or more, remained steady at 1.8 million in September. The long-term unemployed represented 23.6% of the total number of unemployed individuals for that month.

The number of workers employed part-time for economic reasons was stable at 4.6 million in September, as these individuals would have preferred full-time work but were in part-time roles due to reduced hours or the inability to find full-time positions.

The amount of individuals holding multiple jobs increased by 17,000 in September, constituting 5.4% of total employment for that month.

The jobs report for September comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is considering lowering interest rates for the third month in a row in December. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the job market and inflation right now.

In their recent meetings in September and October, officials decided to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent, even though inflation is still above their target of 2% and is on the rise. They made this choice mainly because they are worried about the state of jobs in the economy.

Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said the “September jobs report may be backward-looking but offers reassurance that the labor market wasn’t crumbling before the government shutdown. There is nothing in the data to warrant a chance to our forecast for the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at the December meeting.