A new poll from the Napolitan News Service, conducted online by Scott Rasmussen with fieldwork by RMG Research, Inc., found Republicans leading Democrats by four percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. The survey focused primarily on voter preferences ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
“If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican from your district or the Democrat from your district?” respondents were asked.
The poll also examined voter enthusiasm, policy priorities and demographic factors that may influence turnout, though full cross-tabulated results were not publicly released.
Among registered voters surveyed, 45 percent said they would support the Republican candidate in their district, while 41 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, giving Republicans a four-point advantage. When independent “leaners” were included, the margin remained the same, with Republicans at 48 percent and Democrats at 44 percent.
The results mark a slight expansion of the GOP’s advantage compared with September 2025, when Republicans held a narrower 46–45 percent lead including leaners. Republicans have led the generic ballot in most months of 2025, with Democrats posting modest advantages in April and May and the two parties tied at 47 percent each in August.
Although the Napolitan News poll showed Republicans ahead on the generic ballot, Democrats held a slight two-point edge in voter enthusiasm, 50 percent to 48 percent.
The survey found notable differences in enthusiasm within the Republican coalition. Among voters who favor Trump-aligned policies, 43 percent said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 22 percent among those who prefer traditional Republican approaches — suggesting a potential motivational gap within the party’s base.
Enthusiasm levels also varied sharply across age groups. Voters 65 and older expressed the highest enthusiasm, with 57 percent saying they were “very enthusiastic.” That figure dropped to 27 percent among voters ages 18–34 and 35–44.
Among respondents who described themselves as “very enthusiastic,” 64 percent said they discuss politics every day or almost every day, indicating that high engagement correlates strongly with enthusiasm to vote.
No additional demographic details — including gender, region, race, or education — were released beyond the topline results.
The news is particularly good for the GOP, since the party in power generally loses seats during midterm elections. Also, the poll could be an outlier; the RealClearPolitics average of polling has Democrats up by nearly 5 points, though many of those polls have been historically inaccurate in recent election cycles.
There is also this: Democrats are having severe money woes as the midterm election cycle is set to begin in earnest.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) secured a substantial loan in preparation for next year’s midterms, as the party struggles with leadership and has little to demonstrate for its government shutdown efforts.
Politico reported on a filing the party made two weeks ago with the Federal Election Commission concerning a $15 million loan.
“The national party committee framed the line of credit as an early investment to boost its candidates in New Jersey and Virginia earlier this month, and help build up state parties ahead of next year’s midterms. But the need for a loan still puts the DNC in sharp contrast with its GOP counterpart, the Republican National Committee, which was sitting on $86 million at the end of September,” the outlet said.
Politico noted the organization had taken out loans in the past, “although usually not this early in the cycle or of this magnitude all at once.”
The DNC reportedly spent over $15 million in 2025 to cover former Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign expenses. Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), lost to President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The additional expenditure came after Harris’ campaign blew through about $1.5 billion in donations.
By comparison, President Trump over the summer touted how well the Republican Party was doing in terms of finances and donations. “The Republican Party is doing really well. Millions of people have joined us in our quest to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN,” he wrote on Truth Social.